Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Preview (Nov 1)

Our Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction leans towards the home side at a price: the Premier League champions arrive at Anfield on Sunday, November 1 (16:30 UK) as away favourites, yet the market has moved the other way since the line opened. Arsenal sit second on 21 points with a 7-0-1 record, level with Manchester City at the top. Liverpool are fourth on 15 points, but they have not lost to Arsenal in the last five meetings listed by ESPN.

Below we break down the DraftKings prices with the bookmaker margin stripped out, the opening-to-current line move, both sides’ last five games, the stat leaders and the head-to-head record, then give one pick and the risk attached to it.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction: Our Quick Answer

Liverpool at +195 is our Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction for Sunday, because the price implies a 32.3% chance once the vig is removed and the evidence points a little higher. Liverpool won their last four Premier League and Champions League games, then drew 1-1 with Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, a tie ESPN logs as a win. Arsenal remain the stronger league side on paper at 7-0-1, but they have not beaten Liverpool in five meetings: Liverpool won two of them and three were drawn. The money agrees with that reading. Arsenal opened at +110 at DraftKings and have drifted to +135, while Liverpool shortened from +220 to +195. In our view, a drift that size on a reigning champion is worth respecting. The main risk is the Liverpool defence, which conceded three goals twice in its last five games. Our estimated score is 2-1 to Liverpool, and the draw at +250 is the obvious danger to the pick.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds and Line Movement

Liverpool vs Arsenal odds at DraftKings, as listed by ESPN on Friday, make Arsenal a +135 away favourite with Liverpool +195 and the draw +250, and the goals line set at 2.5. Converted straight from the moneylines, those prices add up to more than 100% because the sportsbook builds in a margin. ESPN puts that margin at 5.0% for this game. Remove it and the fair split is Arsenal 40.5%, Liverpool 32.3% and the draw 27.2%. The more useful number for bettors is the move since opening. Arsenal’s +110 opener implied 47.6% before vig; at +135 the raw figure is 42.6%. Liverpool went the other way, from a 31.2% raw implied chance at +220 to 33.9% at +195. Roughly five points of raw win probability have come off Arsenal since opening, with much of it landing on the home side. Prices quoted here are a snapshot, so check the current line before you bet.

If the conversion is new to you, our guide to converting betting odds into implied probability walks through the same maths step by step.

Arsenal Form and Liverpool Form: Last Five Games

Arsenal form over the last five games is tighter defensively, while Liverpool form is louder at both ends, and that contrast shapes this match. Arsenal conceded only three goals in five, beating Lille 3-0, Nottingham Forest 1-0 and Everton 2-0, drawing 2-2 at Bayern Munich and then drawing 1-1 at Fleetwood Town in the Carabao Cup, a tie ESPN records as a defeat. Liverpool scored 15 goals and conceded 8 in their last five. The attack produced 6-3 at LASK Linz and 4-3 against Villarreal in the Champions League, plus league wins at Brentford (2-1) and at home to Brighton & Hove Albion (2-0). That Brighton result matters: Brighton are third in the Premier League table, so Liverpool have already handled one top-four rival at Anfield. ESPN’s Champions League table backs the trend, with Liverpool 3-0-0 in the competition and Arsenal 2-1-0.

Liverpool last five

Arsenal last five

Premier League Table and Stat Leaders: Isak vs Saka

The Premier League table gives Arsenal a six-point cushion over Liverpool before kick-off: Arsenal have 21 points and a +8 goal difference, Liverpool 15 points and +3, with Manchester City top on goal difference at +11 and Brighton third. A Liverpool win cuts the gap to three points. Alexander Isak is the player most likely to decide it. ESPN lists him with 6 goals in 7 matches from 20 shots, double the goals of Arsenal’s top scorer Bukayo Saka, who has 3 from 17 shots. Cody Gakpo leads Liverpool with 3 assists, while Declan Rice has 4 for Arsenal and also tops the passing chart with 517 accurate passes, just ahead of Virgil van Dijk on 505. In goal, David Raya has made 18 saves to Alisson Becker’s 17. ESPN’s preview feed lists no injury report for either side, so wait for confirmed line-ups rather than guessing at absences.

• Kick-off: Sunday, November 1, 16:30 UK at Anfield.
• Arsenal manager: Mikel Arteta, who led the club to its first Premier League title in 22 years last season, per ESPN.
• Next up: Liverpool visit Fenerbahce (Wednesday, November 4, 17:45 UK) and Arsenal visit Slavia Prague (20:00 UK) in the Champions League.
• Both clubs played a Carabao Cup tie on Tuesday or Wednesday, so rotation is a live question.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Head to Head: Five Meetings

The Liverpool vs Arsenal head to head over the last five meetings listed by ESPN reads two Liverpool wins, three draws and no Arsenal win. The most recent game, on 2026-01-08, finished 0-0. Before that, Liverpool won 1-0 on 2025-08-31, the sides drew 2-2 on 2025-05-11 and 2-2 again on 2024-10-27, and Liverpool won 2-1 on 2024-07-31. For goals bettors the pattern is split. Three of the five meetings went over the 2.5 line, but the two most recent stayed under, with one goal across both. That fits the current numbers: Arsenal have conceded only three goals in their last five, while Liverpool’s matches have been wild in Europe and calmer in the league. ESPN’s analysis also noted that Nottingham Forest drew at Anfield this season, a reminder that this Liverpool side can be held at home.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds Pick and Score Estimate

Our pick is Liverpool on the moneyline at +195, with a 2-1 home win as our estimated score. The case rests on three pieces of today’s data. First, Liverpool are unbeaten in five against Arsenal. Second, they won their last four league and European games, scoring freely. Third, DraftKings has moved its price from +220 to +195 while Arsenal drifted from +110 to +135, so the market is already leaning the same way. The vig-free figure of 32.3% looks a touch low for a home side with that profile. The risk is plain: Arsenal are 7-0-1 in the league and concede very little, and Liverpool gave up three goals twice in their last five. If Arsenal score first, the draw at +250 becomes the likeliest outcome. Bettors who want a second view can compare this read with the model probabilities at Mysports.AI.

Expected goals (xG) data would sharpen this read; our explainer on what expected goals measure covers how to use it. Lines move before kick-off, so bet only what you can afford to lose.

Sources: ESPN match preview, ESPN Premier League standings, ESPN: the good, bad and lucky in Europe, ESPN on Arteta.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds FAQ