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Europa League Predictions: Upcoming Games
Europa League has 0 games today and 18 more in the next week in the Sporlytics model. The model’s strongest lean is Ferencvaros at 35.6 points above market against Milan; the most lopsided game is Benfica over Lech Poznan at 86%. Grading starts with the first completed games and every pick stays on the record.
Today · Monday, November 2
No games scheduled in this window.
Next 7 days
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 11/4 10:30 AM |  Stade Rennais 1-2-0 Olympiacos 3-0-0 | 34% 37% | 28% | 45% · 26% · 29% | OLY +8.3 | 1–1 | 1.1 1.2 | 40% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  AC Milan 1-0-2 Ferencvaros 3-0-0 | 30% 47% | 23% | 71% · 17% · 12% | FER +35.6 | 1–1 | 1.4 1.9 | 64% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  Anderlecht 1-0-2 RB Salzburg 1-1-1 | 56% 21% | 22% | 50% · 25% · 26% | AND +6.7 | 1–1 | 1.9 1.1 | 56% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  Crystal Palace 1-1-1 TSG Hoffenheim 1-0-2 | 53% 27% | 20% | 48% · 24% · 27% | CRY +4.4 | 2–1 | 2.2 1.6 | 74% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  Levski Sofia 1-1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0-2 | 49% 27% | 24% | 47% · 27% · 26% | LEV +1.4 | 1–1 | 1.7 1.2 | 54% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  Lillestrom 0-1-2 Viktoria Plzen 0-0-3 | 33% 42% | 25% | 34% · 25% · 41% | PLZ +1.5 | 1–1 | 1.3 1.5 | 54% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  NEC Nijmegen 1-1-1 Omonia Nicosia 2-0-1 | 35% 43% | 22% | 53% · 24% · 24% | OMON +19.5 | 1–1 | 1.7 1.9 | 70% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  Real Sociedad 1-1-1 Lyon 2-0-1 | 57% 22% | 20% | 52% · 24% · 25% | RSO +5.9 | 2–1 | 2.2 1.3 | 69% |
| Thu 11/5 12:45 PM |  Sparta Prague 1-1-1 AFC Bournemouth 3-0-0 | 28% 47% | 25% | 16% · 21% · 63% | SPP +11.5 | 1–1 | 1.2 1.6 | 53% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  AZ Alkmaar 2-0-1 Juventus 2-1-0 | 42% 35% | 23% | 25% · 25% · 49% | AZ +16.2 | 1–1 | 1.7 1.5 | 62% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  Bayer Leverkusen 3-0-0 Marseille 0-0-3 | 78% 7% | 15% | 67% · 19% · 14% | B04 +11.0 | 2–0 | 2.4 0.6 | 59% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  Benfica 3-0-0 Lech Poznan 0-1-2 | 86% 5% | 9% | 81% · 12% · 7% | SLB +4.9 | 3–0 | 3.5 0.8 | 80% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  Celta Vigo 1-0-2 Union St.-Gilloise 2-1-0 | 23% 53% | 24% | 47% · 25% · 28% | USG +25.3 | 1–1 | 1.1 1.7 | 53% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  Celtic 0-0-3 Besiktas 2-1-0 | 21% 61% | 17% | 31% · 25% · 44% | BES +17.6 | 1–2 | 1.6 2.7 | 80% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  Hapoel Be'er 0-1-2 OFI Crete 1-0-2 | 30% 43% | 26% | 45% · 26% · 29% | OFI +14.1 | 1–1 | 1.1 1.4 | 46% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  SK Sturm Graz 1-1-1 NK Celje 0-1-2 | 44% 28% | 28% | 61% · 21% · 18% | NKC +10.3 | 1–0 | 1.3 1.0 | 40% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  Sunderland 2-1-0 Dinamo Zagreb 1-1-1 | 55% 22% | 23% | 66% · 20% · 15% | DZG +7.5 | 1–1 | 1.8 1.0 | 53% |
| Thu 11/5 3:00 PM |  Torreense 1-0-2 Ararat-Armenia 0-0-3 | 62% 20% | 18% | 54% · 25% · 22% | TOR +8.5 | 2–1 | 2.5 1.4 | 74% |
Model probabilities post as soon as the fixture is on the schedule; the market column fills when DraftKings opens a line.
Last graded
No Europa League games graded yet.
Europa League record
Grading starts with the first completed games. Every pick is scored the morning after and listed on the results page, hits and misses alike.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
Europa League predictions FAQ
How does the model predict Europa League matches?
Each club has an attack and defence rating from goals scored and conceded, weighted toward recent matches. The ratings set each side’s expected goals, and a Poisson model turns those into home win, draw and away win probabilities and the most likely scoreline.
Why is the draw probability so high in some matches?
Draws come from low expected goals. When both sides project under about 1.3 goals, 1–1 or 0–0 becomes the single most likely outcome, so the draw share rises above 30% even when one team is the favourite.
Does the model account for injuries and lineups?
No. It uses results, goals and schedule only, which is why the market column sits next to it: a large gap often means the market knows something about team news the ratings do not.
How are Europa League picks graded?
The pick is the outcome with the highest model probability. It is scored against the final result the morning after, and the Brier score records how far the probabilities were from what happened. Everything is listed on the results page, misses included.