Home › Predictions › Premier League
Premier League Predictions: November 2, 2026
Premier League has 1 game today and 10 more in the next week in the Sporlytics model. The model’s strongest lean is Ipswich at 15.2 points above market against Bournemouth; the most lopsided game is Arsenal over Hull at 65%. Grading starts with the first completed games and every pick stays on the record.
Today · Monday, November 2
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 PM |  Newcastle United 3-2-3 Everton 2-4-2 | 49% 27% | 24% | 44% · 26% · 29% | NEW +4.7 | 1–1 | 1.6 1.2 | 53% |
Next 7 days
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 11/6 3:00 PM | Everton 2-4-2 Coventry City 3-0-6 | 54% 22% | 24% | 55% · 24% · 21% | COV +0.5 | 1–0 | 1.7 1.0 | 49% |
| Sat 11/7 7:30 AM |  Leeds United 2-5-2 Tottenham Hotspur 3-3-3 | 47% 25% | 28% | 38% · 28% · 34% | LEE +9.0 | 1–0 | 1.3 0.9 | 39% |
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM |  Arsenal 8-0-1 Hull City 2-5-2 | 65% 12% | 22% | 83% · 12% · 6% | Draw +10.6 | 1–0 | 1.8 0.6 | 42% |
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM |  Fulham 2-3-4Newcastle United 3-2-3 | 48% 27% | 25% | 44% · 26% · 30% | FUL +4.1 | 1–1 | 1.6 1.1 | 50% |
| Sat 11/7 12:30 PM |  Nottingham Forest 1-3-5 Manchester City 7-0-2 | 24% 51% | 25% | 21% · 23% · 56% | NFO +3.1 | 1–1 | 1.0 1.6 | 50% |
| Sun 11/8 9:00 AM |  Brighton & Hove Albion 6-1-2 Brentford 3-5-1 | 61% 18% | 21% | 49% · 25% · 26% | BHA +11.7 | 2–1 | 2.0 1.0 | 58% |
| Sun 11/8 9:00 AM |  Crystal Palace 2-1-6 Liverpool 4-3-2 | 28% 48% | 25% | 19% · 22% · 59% | CRY +8.7 | 1–1 | 1.2 1.6 | 53% |
| Sun 11/8 9:00 AM |  Ipswich Town 3-2-4 AFC Bournemouth 3-3-3 | 41% 37% | 22% | 26% · 26% · 49% | IPS +15.2 | 1–1 | 1.8 1.7 | 68% |
| Sun 11/8 9:00 AM |  Sunderland 1-2-6 Chelsea 5-1-3 | 31% 45% | 24% | 27% · 26% · 47% | SUN +3.9 | 1–1 | 1.4 1.7 | 58% |
| Sun 11/8 11:30 AM |  Manchester United 1-4-4 Aston Villa 3-3-3 | 50% 27% | 24% | 42% · 25% · 33% | MAN +7.6 | 1–1 | 1.7 1.2 | 57% |
Model probabilities post as soon as the fixture is on the schedule; the market column fills when DraftKings opens a line.
Last graded
No Premier League games graded yet.
Premier League record
Grading starts with the first completed games. Every pick is scored the morning after and listed on the results page, hits and misses alike.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
Premier League predictions FAQ
How does the model predict Premier League matches?
Each club has an attack and defence rating from goals scored and conceded, weighted toward recent matches. The ratings set each side’s expected goals, and a Poisson model turns those into home win, draw and away win probabilities and the most likely scoreline.
Why is the draw probability so high in some matches?
Draws come from low expected goals. When both sides project under about 1.3 goals, 1–1 or 0–0 becomes the single most likely outcome, so the draw share rises above 30% even when one team is the favourite.
Does the model account for injuries and lineups?
No. It uses results, goals and schedule only, which is why the market column sits next to it: a large gap often means the market knows something about team news the ratings do not.
How are Premier League picks graded?
The pick is the outcome with the highest model probability. It is scored against the final result the morning after, and the Brier score records how far the probabilities were from what happened. Everything is listed on the results page, misses included.