Home › Predictions › Saudi Pro League
Saudi Pro League Predictions: Upcoming Games
Saudi Pro League has 0 games today and 9 more in the next week in the Sporlytics model. The model’s strongest lean is Al Khaleej at 10.0 points above market against Al Kholood; the most lopsided game is Al Qadsiah over Al Fayha at 79%. Grading starts with the first completed games and every pick stays on the record.
Today · Monday, November 2
No games scheduled in this window.
Next 7 days
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 11/5 8:25 AM |  Al Kholood 3-3-5 Al Khaleej 3-6-3 | 38% 40% | 23% | 43% · 27% · 30% | KHA +10.0 | 1–1 | 1.7 1.7 | 67% |
| Thu 11/5 10:10 AM |  Abha 0-3-8 Al Shabab 3-5-3 | 22% 54% | 24% | 20% · 23% · 57% | ABH +2.0 | 0–1 | 1.0 1.7 | 50% |
| Thu 11/5 12:30 PM |  Al Qadsiah 9-1-2 Al Fayha 2-5-5 | 79% 8% | 13% | 82% · 10% · 8% | Draw +2.5 | 2–0 | 3.0 0.9 | 74% |
| Fri 11/6 9:30 AM |  Al Fateh 1-3-8 Al Riyadh 3-3-5 | 45% 30% | 25% | 44% · 25% · 30% | FAT +0.8 | 1–1 | 1.6 1.2 | 53% |
| Fri 11/6 9:55 AM |  Al Hazem 2-4-6 Al Nassr 9-1-1 | 12% 71% | 16% | 9% · 13% · 78% | Draw +3.3 | 0–2 | 0.9 2.5 | 67% |
| Fri 11/6 12:30 PM |  Al Ittihad 7-3-1 Neom SC 7-1-4 | 45% 28% | 26% | 47% · 25% · 27% | NEOM +1.1 | 1–1 | 1.4 1.1 | 46% |
| Sat 11/7 8:20 AM |  Al Faisaly 2-4-6 Al Diriyah 4-3-5 | 34% 37% | 29% | 29% · 24% · 48% | ALF +5.3 | 1–1 | 1.1 1.2 | 39% |
| Sat 11/7 9:30 AM |  Al Ettifaq 5-4-3 Al Hilal 10-0-1 | 15% 66% | 19% | 11% · 14% · 75% | Draw +4.5 | 0–2 | 1.0 2.3 | 64% |
| Sat 11/7 12:30 PM |  Al Ahli 7-0-4 Al Taawoun 0-5-7 | 74% 11% | 15% | 64% · 20% · 16% | AHL +9.7 | 2–0 | 2.6 0.9 | 68% |
Model probabilities post as soon as the fixture is on the schedule; the market column fills when DraftKings opens a line.
Last graded
No Saudi Pro League games graded yet.
Saudi Pro League record
Grading starts with the first completed games. Every pick is scored the morning after and listed on the results page, hits and misses alike.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
Saudi Pro League predictions FAQ
How does the model predict Saudi Pro League matches?
Each club has an attack and defence rating from goals scored and conceded, weighted toward recent matches. The ratings set each side’s expected goals, and a Poisson model turns those into home win, draw and away win probabilities and the most likely scoreline.
Why is the draw probability so high in some matches?
Draws come from low expected goals. When both sides project under about 1.3 goals, 1–1 or 0–0 becomes the single most likely outcome, so the draw share rises above 30% even when one team is the favourite.
Does the model account for injuries and lineups?
No. It uses results, goals and schedule only, which is why the market column sits next to it: a large gap often means the market knows something about team news the ratings do not.
How are Saudi Pro League picks graded?
The pick is the outcome with the highest model probability. It is scored against the final result the morning after, and the Brier score records how far the probabilities were from what happened. Everything is listed on the results page, misses included.