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Champions League Predictions: Upcoming Games
Champions League has 0 games today and 18 more in the next week in the Sporlytics model. The model’s strongest lean is Feyenoord at 25.2 points above market against Inter Milan; the most lopsided game is LASK Linz over S Bratislava at 83%. Grading starts with the first completed games and every pick stays on the record.
Today · Monday, November 2
No games scheduled in this window.
Next 7 days
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 11/3 12:45 PM |  Galatasaray 1-0-2 VfB Stuttgart 2-1-0 | 39% 39% | 22% | 44% · 23% · 33% | VFB +6.2 | 1–1 | 1.8 1.8 | 69% |
| Tue 11/3 12:45 PM |  Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1-1 Sporting CP 2-0-1 | 50% 26% | 23% | 26% · 25% · 49% | SHK +24.1 | 1–1 | 1.8 1.2 | 58% |
| Tue 11/3 3:00 PM |  Atlético Madrid 1-1-1 Bayern Munich 1-2-0 | 49% 31% | 21% | 36% · 24% · 40% | ATM +13.0 | 2–1 | 2.2 1.7 | 74% |
| Tue 11/3 3:00 PM |  Barcelona 2-0-1 Aston Villa 3-0-0 | 54% 28% | 18% | 76% · 14% · 10% | AVL +18.2 | 2–2 | 2.8 2.1 | 86% |
| Tue 11/3 3:00 PM |  Bodo/Glimt 1-0-2 Lille 0-0-3 | 68% 16% | 16% | 52% · 23% · 25% | BODO +16.1 | 2–1 | 3.0 1.5 | 82% |
| Tue 11/3 3:00 PM |  Feyenoord Rotterdam 1-0-2 Internazionale 1-0-2 | 50% 29% | 21% | 25% · 22% · 53% | FEY +25.2 | 2–1 | 2.1 1.5 | 70% |
| Tue 11/3 3:00 PM |  LASK Linz 1-0-2 Slovan Bratislava 0-0-3 | 83% 7% | 10% | 66% · 19% · 15% | LAS +16.8 | 3–1 | 3.9 1.2 | 88% |
| Tue 11/3 3:00 PM |  Manchester United 1-0-2 AS Roma 1-1-1 | 49% 31% | 20% | 41% · 24% · 35% | MAN +7.5 | 2–1 | 2.2 1.8 | 76% |
| Tue 11/3 3:00 PM |  Villarreal 1-0-2 Paris Saint-Germain 3-0-0 | 33% 48% | 19% | 20% · 20% · 60% | VIL +12.9 | 2–2 | 2.1 2.5 | 84% |
| Wed 11/4 12:45 PM |  AEK Athens 1-0-2 Real Madrid 3-0-0 | 33% 47% | 20% | 10% · 14% · 77% | AEK +23.0 | 1–2 | 1.8 2.2 | 77% |
| Wed 11/4 12:45 PM |  Fenerbahce 0-2-1 Liverpool 3-0-0 | 31% 49% | 19% | 18% · 20% · 62% | FEN +13.4 | 1–2 | 1.9 2.4 | 80% |
| Wed 11/4 3:00 PM |  Borussia Dortmund 2-0-1 Real Betis 3-0-0 | 53% 26% | 21% | 56% · 23% · 22% | BET +4.7 | 2–1 | 2.1 1.5 | 70% |
| Wed 11/4 3:00 PM |  FC Porto 0-0-3 Napoli 1-0-2 | 54% 25% | 21% | 48% · 25% · 27% | FCP +5.8 | 2–1 | 2.0 1.3 | 65% |
| Wed 11/4 3:00 PM |  Lens 1-0-2 Como 2-0-1 | 37% 42% | 21% | 32% · 24% · 44% | RCL +4.5 | 1–2 | 1.9 2.1 | 76% |
| Wed 11/4 3:00 PM |  PSV Eindhoven 1-1-1 Club Brugge 2-0-1 | 55% 25% | 21% | 47% · 22% · 31% | PSV +8.0 | 2–1 | 2.1 1.4 | 68% |
| Wed 11/4 3:00 PM |  RB Leipzig 1-0-2 Manchester City 2-0-1 | 39% 40% | 21% | 18% · 20% · 62% | RBL +20.8 | 1–1 | 1.9 1.9 | 72% |
| Wed 11/4 3:00 PM |  Slavia Prague 0-1-2 Arsenal 2-1-0 | 25% 50% | 25% | 10% · 17% · 73% | SLP +15.3 | 1–1 | 1.1 1.6 | 51% |
| Wed 11/4 3:00 PM |  Viking FK 0-1-2 Sabah FK 1-0-2 | 58% 23% | 19% | 65% · 19% · 16% | SAB +6.9 | 2–1 | 2.4 1.5 | 75% |
Model probabilities post as soon as the fixture is on the schedule; the market column fills when DraftKings opens a line.
Last graded
No Champions League games graded yet.
Champions League record
Grading starts with the first completed games. Every pick is scored the morning after and listed on the results page, hits and misses alike.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
Champions League predictions FAQ
How does the model predict Champions League matches?
Each club has an attack and defence rating from goals scored and conceded, weighted toward recent matches. The ratings set each side’s expected goals, and a Poisson model turns those into home win, draw and away win probabilities and the most likely scoreline.
Why is the draw probability so high in some matches?
Draws come from low expected goals. When both sides project under about 1.3 goals, 1–1 or 0–0 becomes the single most likely outcome, so the draw share rises above 30% even when one team is the favourite.
Does the model account for injuries and lineups?
No. It uses results, goals and schedule only, which is why the market column sits next to it: a large gap often means the market knows something about team news the ratings do not.
How are Champions League picks graded?
The pick is the outcome with the highest model probability. It is scored against the final result the morning after, and the Brier score records how far the probabilities were from what happened. Everything is listed on the results page, misses included.