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Bundesliga Predictions: Upcoming Games
Bundesliga has 0 games today and 9 more in the next week in the Sporlytics model. The model’s strongest lean is Paderborn at 18.6 points above market against Frankfurt; the most lopsided game is Freiburg over Union Berlin at 74%. Grading starts with the first completed games and every pick stays on the record.
Today · Monday, November 2
No games scheduled in this window.
Next 7 days
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 11/6 2:30 PM |  Hamburg SV 3-0-5 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1-6 | 49% 28% | 23% | no line | no line | 1–1 | 1.8 1.3 | 59% |
| Sat 11/7 9:30 AM |  Borussia Dortmund 5-3-0 SV Elversberg 4-1-3 | 72% 12% | 16% | 73% · 16% · 11% | ELV +0.3 | 2–0 | 2.6 1.0 | 69% |
| Sat 11/7 9:30 AM |  Mainz 3-1-4 Bayern Munich 5-3-0 | 20% 64% | 17% | 18% · 17% · 65% | M05 +1.2 | 1–2 | 1.5 2.8 | 81% |
| Sat 11/7 9:30 AM |  RB Leipzig 5-0-3 FC Augsburg 2-3-3 | 73% 13% | 14% | 64% · 18% · 17% | RBL +8.3 | 2–1 | 3.0 1.2 | 79% |
| Sat 11/7 9:30 AM |  SC Paderborn 07 2-3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2-3 | 50% 25% | 25% | 32% · 25% · 44% | SCP +18.6 | 1–1 | 1.6 1.0 | 49% |
| Sat 11/7 12:30 PM |  VfB Stuttgart 3-0-5 Werder Bremen 4-3-1 | 62% 19% | 19% | 61% · 19% · 19% | VFB +1.0 | 2–1 | 2.4 1.3 | 72% |
| Sun 11/8 9:30 AM |  FC Cologne 2-3-3 Bayer Leverkusen 4-1-3 | 40% 38% | 23% | 24% · 22% · 54% | KOE +15.7 | 1–1 | 1.7 1.6 | 65% |
| Sun 11/8 11:30 AM |  SC Freiburg 5-1-2 1. FC Union Berlin 1-4-3 | 74% 11% | 15% | 61% · 22% · 17% | SCF +13.0 | 2–0 | 2.6 0.9 | 68% |
| Sun 11/8 1:30 PM |  TSG Hoffenheim 3-0-5 Schalke 04 1-3-4 | 60% 17% | 23% | 58% · 22% · 21% | TSG +2.5 | 1–0 | 1.7 0.8 | 46% |
Model probabilities post as soon as the fixture is on the schedule; the market column fills when DraftKings opens a line.
Last graded
No Bundesliga games graded yet.
Bundesliga record
Grading starts with the first completed games. Every pick is scored the morning after and listed on the results page, hits and misses alike.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
Bundesliga predictions FAQ
How does the model predict Bundesliga matches?
Each club has an attack and defence rating from goals scored and conceded, weighted toward recent matches. The ratings set each side’s expected goals, and a Poisson model turns those into home win, draw and away win probabilities and the most likely scoreline.
Why is the draw probability so high in some matches?
Draws come from low expected goals. When both sides project under about 1.3 goals, 1–1 or 0–0 becomes the single most likely outcome, so the draw share rises above 30% even when one team is the favourite.
Does the model account for injuries and lineups?
No. It uses results, goals and schedule only, which is why the market column sits next to it: a large gap often means the market knows something about team news the ratings do not.
How are Bundesliga picks graded?
The pick is the outcome with the highest model probability. It is scored against the final result the morning after, and the Brier score records how far the probabilities were from what happened. Everything is listed on the results page, misses included.