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Sporlytics Model Results: Every Pick, Graded
Grading starts with the first completed games after launch. Lower Brier is better; the market column is the no-vig closing line from DraftKings, which is the benchmark any model has to beat. Value picks are games where the model disagreed with the market by 3 points or more, tracked as flat one-unit bets at the closing odds.
Record by league
| League | Graded | Hits–misses | Hit rate | Brier · model | Brier · market | Value picks | Value P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing graded yet. | |||||||
Latest graded picks
| Date | League | Game | Pick | Model % | Market % | Final | Graded | Brier | Value bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing graded yet. | |||||||||
Showing the latest 0 of 0 graded picks. Finals for US sports are listed away–home.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
Results FAQ
What is a Brier score?
The average squared difference between the predicted probability and what happened (1 for the outcome that occurred, 0 otherwise). A coin flip on a two-way game scores 0.250; lower is better. For soccer the three outcomes are summed, so the coin-flip baseline is about 0.667.
Why compare against the market?
The closing line is the best public forecast there is. A model that cannot match the market’s Brier score is not adding information, so the two are always shown side by side.
What counts as a value pick?
A game where the model’s probability for one side exceeds the no-vig market probability by at least 3 points. It is tracked as a flat one-unit bet at the DraftKings closing odds from the last run before the game.
Are misses ever removed?
No. Every pick recorded before kickoff is graded and stays on this page.