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Serie A Predictions: November 2, 2026
Serie A has 2 games today and 10 more in the next week in the Sporlytics model. The model’s strongest lean is Frosinone at 19.1 points above market against Cagliari; the most lopsided game is AS Roma over Sassuolo at 81%. Grading starts with the first completed games and every pick stays on the record.
Today · Monday, November 2
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 PM |  Sassuolo 2-2-5 Fiorentina 1-2-6 | 48% 30% | 22% | 34% · 26% · 40% | SAS +13.9 | 1–1 | 1.9 1.5 | 65% |
| 2:45 PM |  Atalanta 3-2-4 Parma 1-2-6 | 62% 15% | 23% | 62% · 21% · 17% | Draw +1.3 | 1–0 | 1.8 0.8 | 47% |
Next 7 days
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 11/6 2:45 PM |  Venezia 1-0-9 Udinese 1-2-7 | 32% 42% | 27% | 44% · 26% · 30% | UDI +11.9 | 1–1 | 1.2 1.4 | 46% |
| Sat 11/7 9:00 AM |  Cagliari 4-1-5 Frosinone 6-2-2 | 21% 59% | 21% | 34% · 26% · 40% | FRO +19.1 | 1–2 | 1.2 2.1 | 64% |
| Sat 11/7 9:00 AM |  Torino 4-1-5 Lecce 3-0-7 | 55% 22% | 23% | 52% · 27% · 22% | TOR +3.0 | 1–1 | 1.8 1.1 | 54% |
| Sat 11/7 12:00 PM | Parma 1-2-6 Bologna 4-2-4 | 24% 48% | 29% | 22% · 27% · 51% | PAR +1.8 | 0–1 | 0.8 1.3 | 36% |
| Sat 11/7 2:45 PM |  AS Roma 7-3-0Sassuolo 2-2-5 | 81% 8% | 12% | 70% · 17% · 13% | ROMA +11.1 | 3–0 | 3.2 0.9 | 78% |
| Sun 11/8 6:30 AM |  Napoli 4-2-4 Lazio 9-1-0 | 36% 38% | 26% | 46% · 26% · 29% | LAZ +9.8 | 1–1 | 1.3 1.4 | 50% |
| Sun 11/8 9:00 AM |  Genoa 4-1-5 AC Milan 6-3-1 | 27% 47% | 26% | 21% · 27% · 52% | GEN +5.2 | 1–1 | 1.0 1.5 | 46% |
| Sun 11/8 9:00 AM |  Monza 2-1-7Atalanta 3-2-4 | 34% 45% | 20% | 28% · 25% · 47% | MON +6.0 | 1–2 | 1.9 2.1 | 76% |
| Sun 11/8 12:00 PM |  Internazionale 8-1-1 Como 7-2-1 | 44% 31% | 24% | 53% · 23% · 24% | COMO +7.4 | 1–1 | 1.6 1.3 | 57% |
| Sun 11/8 2:45 PM | Fiorentina 1-2-6 Juventus 5-2-3 | 24% 51% | 25% | 26% · 26% · 48% | JUV +3.3 | 0–1 | 1.0 1.6 | 48% |
Model probabilities post as soon as the fixture is on the schedule; the market column fills when DraftKings opens a line.
Last graded
No Serie A games graded yet.
Serie A record
Grading starts with the first completed games. Every pick is scored the morning after and listed on the results page, hits and misses alike.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
Serie A predictions FAQ
How does the model predict Serie A matches?
Each club has an attack and defence rating from goals scored and conceded, weighted toward recent matches. The ratings set each side’s expected goals, and a Poisson model turns those into home win, draw and away win probabilities and the most likely scoreline.
Why is the draw probability so high in some matches?
Draws come from low expected goals. When both sides project under about 1.3 goals, 1–1 or 0–0 becomes the single most likely outcome, so the draw share rises above 30% even when one team is the favourite.
Does the model account for injuries and lineups?
No. It uses results, goals and schedule only, which is why the market column sits next to it: a large gap often means the market knows something about team news the ratings do not.
How are Serie A picks graded?
The pick is the outcome with the highest model probability. It is scored against the final result the morning after, and the Brier score records how far the probabilities were from what happened. Everything is listed on the results page, misses included.