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MLS Predictions: Upcoming Games
MLS has 0 games today and 15 more in the next week in the Sporlytics model. The model’s strongest lean is Nashville at 16.6 points above market against Cincinnati; the most lopsided game is San Diego over Kansas City at 74%. Grading starts with the first completed games and every pick stays on the record.
Today · Monday, November 2
No games scheduled in this window.
Next 7 days
| Time (ET) | Teams | Win % | Draw | Market H·D·A | Edge | Proj. score | xG | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  CF Montréal 6-8-19 Vancouver Whitecaps 18-7-8 | 17% 63% | 20% | 22% · 22% · 56% | VAN +7.4 | 0–2 | 1.0 2.1 | 59% |
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  Chicago Fire FC 16-7-10 Columbus Crew 13-5-15 | 52% 27% | 21% | 47% · 24% · 29% | CHI +5.0 | 2–1 | 2.1 1.5 | 69% |
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  D.C. United 7-12-14 New York City FC 9-12-12 | 33% 40% | 26% | 32% · 27% · 42% | DC +1.8 | 1–1 | 1.2 1.4 | 48% |
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  FC Cincinnati 12-10-11 Nashville SC 22-8-3 | 25% 53% | 21% | 38% · 25% · 37% | NSH +16.6 | 1–2 | 1.3 2.0 | 66% |
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  Inter Miami CF 16-11-6 Charlotte FC 15-8-10 | 59% 23% | 18% | 64% · 18% · 18% | CLT +5.2 | 2–1 | 2.6 1.6 | 78% |
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  Orlando City SC 12-7-14 New England Revolution 18-4-11 | 47% 32% | 20% | 50% · 22% · 28% | NE +4.4 | 2–1 | 2.2 1.8 | 76% |
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  Philadelphia Union 13-8-12 Toronto FC 9-12-12 | 72% 13% | 15% | 64% · 19% · 17% | PHI +7.5 | 2–1 | 2.7 1.1 | 74% |
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM |  Red Bull New York 11-6-16 Atlanta United FC 9-6-18 | 51% 26% | 23% | no line | no line | 1–1 | 1.8 1.2 | 59% |
| Sat 11/7 7:00 PM |  Austin FC 8-10-15 Portland Timbers 12-7-14 | 41% 37% | 23% | 24% · 22% · 53% | ATX +16.4 | 1–1 | 1.8 1.7 | 66% |
| Sat 11/7 7:00 PM |  FC Dallas 15-10-8 Colorado Rapids 12-7-14 | 57% 21% | 22% | 45% · 25% · 30% | DAL +12.8 | 1–1 | 1.9 1.1 | 57% |
| Sat 11/7 7:00 PM |  Houston Dynamo FC 14-9-10 St. Louis CITY SC 14-9-10 | 45% 30% | 25% | 39% · 27% · 34% | HOU +5.9 | 1–1 | 1.5 1.2 | 52% |
| Sat 11/7 7:00 PM |  Minnesota United FC 10-11-12 San Jose Earthquakes 14-10-9 | 54% 25% | 21% | 53% · 23% · 24% | SJ +1.0 | 2–1 | 2.1 1.4 | 68% |
| Sat 11/7 7:00 PM |  Real Salt Lake 12-6-15 LA Galaxy 11-11-11 | 54% 24% | 22% | 57% · 21% · 21% | LA +2.7 | 1–1 | 2.0 1.2 | 62% |
| Sat 11/7 7:00 PM |  San Diego FC 9-11-13 Sporting Kansas City 6-5-22 | 74% 12% | 14% | 64% · 18% · 17% | SD +10.2 | 3–1 | 3.1 1.2 | 80% |
| Sat 11/7 7:00 PM |  Seattle Sounders FC 11-10-12 LAFC 12-11-10 | 40% 33% | 27% | 48% · 25% · 27% | LAFC +6.2 | 1–1 | 1.3 1.2 | 46% |
Model probabilities post as soon as the fixture is on the schedule; the market column fills when DraftKings opens a line.
Last graded
No MLS games graded yet.
MLS record
Grading starts with the first completed games. Every pick is scored the morning after and listed on the results page, hits and misses alike.
Updated 6:06 AM ET · Nov 2, 2026. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN at run time and move during the day. Market = implied probability with the bookmaker margin removed. Edge = model minus market in percentage points; under 3 is noise.
MLS predictions FAQ
How does the model predict MLS matches?
Each club has an attack and defence rating from goals scored and conceded, weighted toward recent matches. The ratings set each side’s expected goals, and a Poisson model turns those into home win, draw and away win probabilities and the most likely scoreline.
Why is the draw probability so high in some matches?
Draws come from low expected goals. When both sides project under about 1.3 goals, 1–1 or 0–0 becomes the single most likely outcome, so the draw share rises above 30% even when one team is the favourite.
Does the model account for injuries and lineups?
No. It uses results, goals and schedule only, which is why the market column sits next to it: a large gap often means the market knows something about team news the ratings do not.
How are MLS picks graded?
The pick is the outcome with the highest model probability. It is scored against the final result the morning after, and the Brier score records how far the probabilities were from what happened. Everything is listed on the results page, misses included.